If you’ve been following the debt ceiling crisis, watched the President’s speech and the response to it by House Speaker John Boehner, you’re observing what is known in political circles as kabuki , a form of Japanese theater using dance-drama, and known for its highly stylized theatrics and elaborate make-up worn by its performers.
And here’s your kabuki theater review, from Politico’s Playbook:
A top Dem’s view of last night: “Speaker Boehner had a tough day yesterday. The right of his caucus bailed on his plan instantly and then CNN reported that S&P thinks his plan would lead to a downgrade, while Reid’s wouldn’t. So the right thinks it doesn’t go far enough, and those looking for a solution that protects our credit rating have no reason to support. And his speech was an amazing tactical blunder. Who gives a speech designed to impress his caucus to the entire country? His base may think compromise is a dirty word, but they are the only ones. It ended up being the perfect contrast for the president. Boehner essentially validated everything the President said. It is very unclear whether he can cobble together the votes to pass it. Even if he can, the senate won’t pass it, so the choice is his — reasonable compromise or default. Hopefully he chooses helping the country over appealing to the far right of his caucus.”
From TNR’s (The New Republic) Jonathan Chait: “I’m not really sure what Obama was trying to accomplish in his speech. I thought he would try to find some kind of lowest common denominator between the Reid and Boehner plans that would stand a chance of passing Congress. He didn’t. Instead he appealed once again to the Grand Bargain. If Obama thinks Congress will pass something like that, he’s nuts. … The most rational explanation for Obama’s speech is that he’s positioning himself for failure. He’s explaining his position so that when Congress fails to lift the debt ceiling, Americans will blame the Republicans and not him. … I expect a week from now we’ll be bracing for disaster.”
It’s been difficult to watch the debt ceiling negotiations go on and on without resolution. The US Ascendant and Pluto are in semi-square, which means paranoia, anxiety and power struggle. It’s obvious that the theatrics are aimed purely towards gaming the 2012 elections, not solutions. And this should be a no-brainer. The debt ceiling limit has been raised seven times since 2001.
I’m feeling frustration so deep today I want to find a church to scream in. I’ve seen this kind of political bullshit time and time again throughout my professional life in the public sector. But here’s the real story, from Josh Marshall, a DC veteran, and editor-in-chief of Talking Points Memo, one of the more balanced political websites on the net:
It is not partisan or spin to say that the Democrats have repeatedly offered compromises. The real driver of the debate is that the fact that Republican majority in the House can’t agree to win. Even Fred Thompson is urging Republicans to declare victory and get out. But that’s the point. Their leaders cannot control their caucuses. The real problem at the moment isn’t that neither side’s caucus can accept the other side’s ‘plan’. The real issue is that Speaker Boehner doesn’t have the votes in his caucus for his own ‘plan’.
That tells you almost everything you need to know about what’s happening and where we’re going. And journalism should be about communicating these highly salient facts to people who come to news organizations seeking to understand what’s happening in the world they’re living in.
A week or so back I was talking to a guy who’s a big time investor. The sort of person who has more money than you or I could ever imagine — and knows all the market side of this stuff — but doesn’t have an intimate feel for Washington. And this person basically asked: What’s the story? What’s actually happening here? Is this theater? Are they actually going to do this? Run us off this cliff?
I hemmed and I hawed because I’d been thinking about the question myself for so long and I wasn’t sure I had any good answer. And what I finally came up with was this. Yes, at some level it’s a game of chicken. Something we can all understand pretty intuitively in human nature and game theory terms. But to really get what’s really going on you’ve got to understand one key point: one of the two cars doesn’t have a driver in it. Which changes everything.
See the full article at Talking Points Memo.
“…that is, ya- there are a lot of struggling people out here who haven’t been able to rise above the crap long enough to rub 2-cents together for some years now. Everything that can be sold for grocery money has been etc etc.
“make sure you can go a month or two” ?
Nice advice but not any more practical at the moment that telling many of us to step out back and grow a money tree this weekend.”
Aword,
You have it exactly right. My family are not only unable to save, we live paycheck-to paycheck and have been using student loan money to help pay the bills until I get educated enough to make some employers think I am worth hiring.
If my student aid is held up, I can’t attend school or pay my bills. Nor can my three teenage daughters who are poised to begin college this next month; they will be relying on Pell grants and if those don’t get paid…well then.
If government benefits are held up, we lose our health care, food stamps (yep we are on those, too) and my dad loses all his income because all three are from the government (military retirement pay, VA compensation, and SS).
Hopefully it won’t come to all that. If it does, we have no family who will help nor friends close by who can band together. They (the friends) all moved away last year. ::::sigh::::
I believe I said it months ago here……..the US government is effectively bankrupt…….to dimish the smoke and mirros game to politics is naive at best and definitely biased perhaps from a place of fear.
The stock market has been manipulated for years now to get the regular guy back into the game, mostly to no avail from my understanding and as long as everyone’s energy is concentrated on the smoke and mirrors as opposed to a practical back up plan should the bottom fall out (which is inevitable despite the efforts of a few fools with buckets and plaster trying to patch a crumbling foundation, its just a matter of when at this point) everyone’s power will be left where it now stands; in the hands of fools playing a smoke and mirrors game.
Basic knowledge of economics will tell anyone……..the US is bankrupt…….no “plan” outside of bankruptcy and rebuilding will work in the long term.
Its a scary thought I am sure…..and it will affect all other countries for sure but prolonging the inevitable is an exercise in futility.
The reasons it is here matter not, the game matters not………people matter and people will be damaged in droves if people don’t wake up and smell the coffee.
You don’t build a new house on a crumbling foundation…..it will only eventually fall…..time for aomeone with a backbone to stand up, admit the truth and start building something new……this is nothing but a self propagating disaster everyone is in denial of.
xoxoxoxox
dreamastrologer,
ya – I’m no student of $$$ but I understand it’s abnormal for the stock market and gold to go up simultaneously; that they usually counter balance each other.
actually, come to think of it, I would imagine the banks would be anxious for all those direct deposits to take place on the 3rd as usual….
…that is, ya- there are a lot of struggling people out here who haven’t been able to rise above the crap long enough to rub 2-cents together for some years now. Everything that can be sold for grocery money has been etc etc.
“make sure you can go a month or two” ?
Nice advice but not any more practical at the moment that telling many of us to step out back and grow a money tree this weekend.
Just sayin’.
Maybe I wasn’t clear – I am definately in the month to month catagory.
Also, I may be really dense here, but I still don’t get how the people who want this to happen will benefit. I mean it is pretty clear that the usual suspects will benefit – large corporations, etc., but how? Even if they have short term benefits of higher interest rates, in the long run doesn’t the destabilization of the world economy do damage to everyone, including themselves? Obviously, I am not a student of economics.
astrodem,
nice words, but those of us who have/had the means to take care of finances in a prudent way have done so. There are many others of us who live month to month on government checks and/or other life/child/family sustaining sources and spinning our wheels for eons to get out of the muck.
saying “plan ahead” for next week is something dreams are made of. wonder what percent of SS recipients are month to month? wonder how many rents will go unpaid and tummies unfilled next week if this isn’t resolved?
just wondering.
astrodem – Thanks for your response. Yea – the time frame is pretty short for all that, but there are a couple things I can do between now and then. Regarding that kind of planning and decision making, the last few years have felt like being in an accordian- expansion and compression – maybe I have just been in and out of denial. I think the main thing I need to do is get real philosophical quick:) I’ll admit I’m pretty scared right now.
Hi KatLyons,
What I meant was get your finances in order, pay down your bills, make sure you have plenty of cash on hand or in the bank. And if you depend on government directly for your income or health care coverage, make sure you can deal with it if you have to go without for a month or two. For most people, it’s probably too late to do anything meaningful. But if we default, interest rates on mortgages, car loans, and credit cards are going to shoot through the roof. Whatever debt you have currently is going to become a lot more expensive to get rid of, so pay down as much of your debt as possible before August 2.
astrodem – I’m appreciating your comments. What do you mean by “start planning now?” Kat
Astrodem:
Would it be possible to get names of the 60 to 80 involved in the House? Would it be a good thing to dig into who is $$$ behind them?
astrodem,
Thank you for your level-headed and open-hearted advice and understanding. It’s good to know you are out there.
be
I think what’s happening is part of a larger, multi-generational cycle. If you really want to know where this is all heading, read Strauss and Howe’s The Fourth Turning, published in 1996. Here’s a passage from page 273 that now seems particularly prescient:
——–
Recall that a Crisis catalyst involves scenarios distinctly imaginable eight or ten years in advance. Based on recent Unraveling-era trends, the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible:
An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.
——–
It’s gonna be a wild ride. Nancy over at Starlight News has been predicting a tumultuous August regardless of whether or not we default.
I wonder if this Crisis really is about waking people up. I certainly hope so. But I guess I’m a little skeptical. After everything we’ve been through over the past decade or two, anyone who is still asleep at this very very late date probably doesn’t want to be woken up, or can’t be.
I hope this doesn’t come off as insensitive, but I think we’re living in an era that has a quality of triage to it, and that quality oscillates becomes more and less salient at different times. Our world and our country are both deep in crisis and those of us who aim to do good, to create, and to heal need to pick and choose where we put our time and energy very carefully and very strategically. Our world right now is filled with psychic and spiritual traps designed to pull us away from what’s important, and it’s filled with people who don’t want to wake up, can’t wake up, or are working for the dark side. It’s a waste and a drain to direct any of our precious energy toward them. That doesn’t mean we should disengage, but that we need to be strategic about when we do engage and how — whether that’s on the level of the mundane world or a higher plane.
I’m raising this point now because if we do default, people in this community are going to be feeling the effects of it in intensely in both the mundane world and the spiritual realm. There are going to be a lot of people whose lives will be profoundly disrupted by default, and not in a good way. No doubt, they’re going to be crying for help and looking to healers in this community for guidance, protection, and help. If you do spiritual work professionally, expect a flood of panicked calls, emails, and visits from people whose lives get thrown into crisis, especially where money is concerned. Keep in mind that you’re not going to be able to help everyone all the time, and don’t bother trying. Protect yourself and your loved ones first. But make sure you don’t waste your precious psychic energy on those who can’t be helped, don’t want the help, or (ideally) who can help themselves. If we default, and let’s do what we can now to try to stop it before it happens, it’s going to be a period of intense practical and spiritual triage for everybody.
In summary, start planning now, remember what’s important, and make choices strategically. This advice is directed at myself as much as it is directed at you all.
Fe –
Re: Cantor, yes he does apparently have a tidy sum riding on a default. It’s part of his financial disclosure documents, but he’s not answering any questions about it.
If Kurosawa had ever made a mystery movie centered around killings at a kabuki theater this would be it. Much more going on behind the curtains than in front…
Fe -link to Cantor investment WSJ
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/06/28/eric-cantor-is-short-treasurys-sort-of/
‘We Get The Sacrifice, They Get The Wealth’: A Fired-Up Pelosi Tears Into GOP Deficit Plan
Evan McMorris-Santoro | July 26, 2011, 1:18PM
Speaking to a crowd of union workers on Capitol Hill today, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi unloaded on Republican plans to lower the deficit through deep cuts to government services in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Frustrations are running high in Congress with the default deadline rapidly approaching, and Pelosi spoke with a fire that suggested the endless debate over the debt ceiling is taking its toll on her patience.
“This isn’t just about them saying we should reduce the deficit,” she said, adding: “This is an excuse. The budget deficit is an excuse for the Republicans to undermine government plain and simple. They don’t just want to make cuts, they want to destroy. They want to destroy food safety, clean air, clean water, the department of education. They want to destroy your rights.”
Pelosi said that Democratic approach to the debt and deficit problem isn’t just more balanced, as President Obama has said, but is aimed at improving the lot of the middle class workers she was speaking to. The purpose of the press conference was to address the continuing battle over the NLRB, which has pitted the core constituencies of both parties against each other.
As with everything on the Hill these days, however, the debt ceiling crisis seeped in, with Pelosi tearing into the Republican budget cut demands near the end of the session.
We all want to be fiscally sound,” she said. “We don’t want to do harm to our economic growth but we know that if we can save some money, we’d like to do that.”
The Republicans, Pelosi said, her voice rising, have something very different in mind.
“They do not like the government,” Pelosi said. “They’re riding an engine of popular support for, ok we have to reduce the deficit. And they’re using that to destroy.”
“The Speaker has said that between him and the president they have a different vision of America and that’s how come their budget proposals are different,” she sad. “Quite different…We get the sacrifice, they get the wealth.”
thanks, astrodem, and all of you. i put this out there as a no-brainer, really. perhaps all this political/economical shake-up is what we need (and i mean globally) to finally come to the reality of our predicament? on a long-term, isn’t it getting to the point where severe inflation/depression for all of us is what it is gonna take to get us back to some reality?
astrodem;
Appreciate your take on this.
I use the term kabuki because I think both the Senate and the White are providing a stylized, partisan-looking but altogether political cover for Boehner, who has what must be the world’s worst job (no wonder he cries all the time).
I do not think that what is going on here is kabuki. When we talk about kabuki theater in Washington, it’s when the key leaders have already agreed to a pre-determined outcome and the posturing is done in order to move public opinion, the assorted interest groups, and a majority of Members into a position where they can accept the terms of the deal. This does happen in Washington, but that isn’t what’s happening here.
Right now, there is no deal because Boehner doesn’t have the support of his caucus. That has been true of this standoff since the moment Republicans took control of the House. Boehner can’t broker a deal even if he wanted to (and I do believe he wants to) because his party won’t let him. We’ve learned in the past two weeks that something in the ballpark of 60 – 80 Republican House Members plan to allow the US to default NO MATTER WHAT. There’s also another 50 – 100 Members on top of that whose demands in exchange for their vote are so extreme as to be virtually impossible to meet. On top of that, Cantor has aligned himself with the Tea Party freshmen, is looking take the Speakership from Boehner, and could seize the opportunity at any moment if Boehner deviates too far from the wishes of the more extreme Members of the party.
No folks, this is not kabuki theater. All the world may be a stage, but these players are using guns with live bullets. It is true that Congress will have to extend Treasury’s borrowing authority no matter what. But the assurances that this will happen by August 2nd or any time soon thereafter are a joke. If there’s any kabuki theater going on right now, it’s directed at the idiots in the investor class who don’t understand American politics nearly as well as they think they do, and see Washington through a lens of emotionalism, greed, and privilege. Assurances that a deal will be reached and default avoided are designed to keep these rich fools blissfully ignorant for as long as possible.
Here’s my take. I think it’s going to take a market panic — and having the GOP’s top donors screaming at their hand-picked representatives on the phone that they’re losing billions — before enough Republicans come to their senses. There’s nothing quite like a market crash to clarify things for the government puppets of the upper class. If you recall, the last time Wall Street thought the world was going to end in September 2008, Republicans of all stripes raced to the defense of their corporate overlords. In a preview of his Speakership, then Minority Leader Boehner even cried on the floor of the House pleading with his colleagues to defend the poor, helpless banks.
Trust me, the Tea Party freshmen are just as much in debt to and in thrall of their corporate overlords as the rest of the GOP. Those who say otherwise should poke around on OpenSecrets for a little while and see just who it was that paid for the Republican takeover of 2010. You won’t be surprised. It’s all the usual suspects, interests, and corporate front groups. When the markets start tanking, the Tea Party will come running, despite their fake anti-establishment posturing.
The thing that worries me most is how much damage default will do to this country. Once the cards start falling, we don’t get to put them back again. The damage we do to our national credit rating, our international reputation as a stable and functioning government, and our economy is going to be permanent. Most people (and surprisingly, most investors) still have no idea how catastrophic default would be to America and the global economy. It would be a true economic cataclysm — the kind of thing that would make the Great Depression look like a minor inconvenience. I could walk you through the specifics, but that would take volumes to do, and if you’re interested there’s plenty of material on the web that explains the consequences of a US default. In short, virtually the entire global economy is tied to the underlying stability, safety, and predictability of US Treasury notes. Mess with that, and it’s like punching through the floorboards at the bottom of a ship lost at sea. There’s nothing below except cold, dark, turbulent water and nowhere to go when the ship inevitably starts sinking.
I certainly hope that wiser heads will prevail in the coming days, but as someone who is watching this from relatively close up and, to a very small degree, is trying to shape the outcome, I’m not optimistic. Sorry to be such a downer, but you all deserve to learn the truth as I see it.
This is yet another reason why we need to significantly strengthen our local economies, so that this shite doesn’t have near as much influence over our lives. Democracy is broken, so we need to recreate it in our own communities (as a start) and slowly, peacefully take back our independence. A second American Revolution. Do you think if enough people abandoned the top-down system to form their own interconnected political/economic nodes that the empty carapace would collapse? Then maybe we could start over again.
I am feeling so effing ornery today. Effing Mars coming up on my effing MC, I guess.
gary:
Isn’t Eric Cantor an investor in a bonds ratings company that will make a mint off default?
ask yourself the age old question: Qui Bono? (who benefits?)
who benefits from our credit rating going down and thus interest rates going UP?
those who need to borrow? of course not
its those who HAVE money, especially to lend or reap interest payments on, who will benefit
I think it is puppet theater. I think the teabaggers are the puppets, and they are being easily manipulated by the puppeteers (the 1%ers) because they are simplistic thinkers who honestly believe something pretty much all of us believe – that our debt is too high and our children and grandhildren will pay for it. The problem (for us) is the puppets are idiologues and aren’t clear thinkers and don’t understand the resolution of the problem of our national debt needs to be addressed with a balanced, long-term and disciplined approach (which we know is possible – Clinton managed it). They honestly do not believe there will be catastrophy, and even if there is, it will be good for us over-spenders. We need to be punished anyway, right? Daddy knows best after all.
The puppeteers are another story. Why would they want to play this level of brinkmanship? Why would they risk international economic catastrophy? I think they probably are the same people who were behind the detonation the World Trade Center on 9/11 (Bush was their puppet that time – as dumb as the teabaggers and a lot easier to manipulate than Obama). What is that Wolfe (?) theory about groups poised to take advantage of mass confusion? Why wait? Why not create some? My two cents, anyway.
Fort Knox
(((echo echo echo echo…)))
you mean the Taking of Pelham 123? I’ve seen that before!
there is no way to Kabuki
Kabuki
is
the Way.
e:
I would love it if we could do kabuki grocery. That would be a piece worth filming.
Guys:
Sometimes, after reading the blogs from the left and center, I wake up in the middle of the night kicking off the covers drenched in sweat.
And it’s not menopause.
Does the Tea Party recognize that it could possibly leave the world in chaos and open to international corporate takeover? Everything about One World Government, which they say they fear, is right there in a corporatocracy. The Koch’s knew what they were doing when they masterminded their revolution.
anyone notice how gold made a record high yesterday?
anyone seen that movie with travolta and denzel, pelham 123? he held the hostages to push up the gold prices right?
perhaps that’s what this “theatre” is all about???
I was just looking into Kabuki the other night. One thing about it is that it highlights ordinary life. It would be like..from what I gather..making an elaborate theatrical drama out of going grocery shopping or mopping the kitchen floor (which would be a heck of a lot of fun).
The current psychosis qualifies because the debt ceiling is regular housekeeping for the US government.