Egypt closer to the brink

Update: Politico.com just reported: “Pres. Barack Obama declared that a ‘transformation’ is taking hold in Egypt as reports said President Hosni Mubarak was on the verge of stepping down. ‘We are witnessing history unfold’, Obama said. ‘The people of Egypt are calling for change…America will continue to do everything we can to support an orderly and genuine transition to democracy in Egypt’.” [Genuine democracy? That sounds like a genuine McDonald’s milkshake.]

4:26 EST: According to the NY Times: President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt told the Egyptian people Thursday that he would delegate more authority to his vice president, Omar Suleiman, but that he would not resign his post, contradicting earlier reports that he would step aside and surprising hundreds of thousands of demonstrators gathered to hail his departure from the political scene.

In a nationally televised address following a tumultuous day of political rumors and conflicting reports, Mr. Mubarak said he would “admit mistakes” and honor the sacrifices of young people killed in the three-week uprising, but that he would continue to “shoulder my responsibilities” until September, and did not give a firm indication that he intended to depart the political scene.

The critical mass of citizens pushing for Mubarak’s resignation is growing, and breaking news stories from the Washington Post and NY Times are indicating more changes are coming sooner rather than later. According to the Washington Post, “CIA Director Leon Panetta, in testimony before a House intelligence committee Thursday, said, ‘There is a strong likelihood that Mubarak will step down this evening,’ referring to the Egyptian president.”

This would presumably leave Vice President Omar Suleiman in the role of Egypt’s leader — still not the complete overhaul on the governing party being demanded by protesters, which will take time if it is allowed to happen at all. Suleiman is reported to have been coordinator of the CIA’s extraordinary rendition program in Egypt — that word being doublespeak for the American program of bringing prisoners (presumably terrorism suspects) to Egypt for torture.

It seems that tanks and tear gas may not be the only American exports used against the Egyptian people — although the US can hardly take credit for inventing torture. Still the role of the US in decades of repression by the Egyptian government was, at best, one of turning a blind eye. Through most of these weeks of protest, the Egyptian military has played a neutral role, with several reports of individual soldiers assisting activists being assaulted by pro-Mubarak thugs. Now there appears to be some positioning going on by the military, according to the NY Times:

Egypt’s armed forces said on Thursday that they were taking “necessary measures to protect the nation and support the legitimate demands of the people,” a signal that the military intends to take a commanding role in governing the country.

There was no immediate confirmation that the army intended to replace the government named by President Hosni Mubarak, but protesters in Cairo roared approval at the news that the military was moving to supplant the government they have steadfastly opposed.

Jubilant chants of “The Army and the people in one hand!” could be heard on broadcasts from Tahrir Square.

There was no information about what role Mr. Mubarak or his new vice president, Omar Suleiman, would play in a military government.

The jubilation may be a bit premature, however. According to a story in The Guardian UK, the Egyptian military has been involved in arresting and torturing protesters, despite their professed and apparent neutrality. The Guardian’s article begins,

The Egyptian military has secretly detained hundreds and possibly thousands of suspected government opponents since mass protests against President Hosni Mubarak began, and at least some of these detainees have been tortured, according to testimony gathered by the Guardian.

The military has claimed to be neutral, merely keeping anti-Mubarak protesters and loyalists apart. But human rights campaigners say this is clearly no longer the case, accusing the army of involvement in both disappearances and torture – abuses Egyptians have for years associated with the notorious state security intelligence (SSI) but not the army.

The Guardian has spoken to detainees who say they have suffered extensive beatings and other abuses at the hands of the military in what appears to be an organised campaign of intimidation. Human rights groups have documented the use of electric shocks on some of those held by the army.

This bears out Eric’s assessment of the military in Egypt’s natal chart. In the Feb. 4 subscriber issue titled Something about Egypt, Eric noticed the Mercury-Neptune square in a natal chart based on the the latest incarnation of Egypt’s government. In this case, that is the Arab Republic of Egypt, founded in 1953, which followed the overthrow of King Fouad II the same year. This chart and related charts can be seen here.) Eric wrote in that issue:

As for the role of the military: that is a 6th house matter, and Virgo is on the 6th cusp. The Moon is right there, conjunct its own osculating apogee (Black Moon Lilith, the little crescent with a cross). The Moon’s presence speaks of the reputed closeness between the Egyptian army and the people (often represented by the Moon in a public chart) though there is a dark side. The relationship is not stable and it’s subject to corruption. There is something two-faced going on here. Virgo’s ruler is Mercury, and this we find in Cancer (again, a reference to the people) and square Neptune and Saturn. Mercury is making a lot of aspects, and notably it is in mutual reception to the Moon — they occupy one another’s signs, and are in aspect. It’s almost as if the military plays any role that is convenient at the moment.

Clearly we need to keep a very aware view of the Egyptian military, as well as the less-savory interests of the American military-industrial complex as events unfold — and things may start changing quickly.